CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 19Z SAT 10/07 - 06Z SUN 11/07 2004
ISSUED: 10/07 18:41Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across Romania ... Moldavia ... S Ukraine ... N Bulgaria ... W Serbia/Montenegro.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across the Ukraine and the central Balkans.

General thunderstorms are forecast across eastern portions of Europe.

General thunderstorms are forecast across extreme E Spain and teh SW Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

See convective outlook from Friday, 09 July 2004.

DISCUSSION

...Romania ... Bulgaria ... Ukraine ... central Balkan States...
12Z ascents from S Romania and Bulgaria are quite impressive ... showing large CAPE densities and strong shear ... which will likely continue to support supercells during the next hours. Models indicate somewhat marginal shear profiles over E Romania and Bulgaria ... but indications are that shear is stronger than assumed by the models. Expect very large hail ... damaging wind gusts ... and especially over E Romania and NE Bulgaria ... some tornadoes given strongly backed SFC flow. Storms will likely congeal into one or more large MCSs late in the night.

...E Spain ... SW Mediterranean Sea...
A few damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail may occur over E Spain and the SW Mediterranean Sea as strong shear overspreads the region. Thermodynamic profiles will likely be quite weak in the NRN portions of the SEE TEXT area ... improving to the S where an EML is present. However ... models hesitate to produce much precip in this region ... also ... any storm that does form at the nose of the EML is likely to be elevated ... with reduced shear in the cloud-bearig layer.

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